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¿Cómo funciona la suerte?

486

Uno de mis libros favoritos de la vida, del cual les hablé ya en este artículo, toca un poco el tema de la suerte. Amé la forma en cómo “critica” el tema de la suerte y cómo la gente se hace dependiente de ella sin saber cómo funciona. Sin embargo, me quedé con ganas de saber más, es por eso que decidí leer un libro que habla con ciencia sobre la suerte: How Luck Happens: Using the Science of Luck to Transform. Y en este artículo te hablaré de mis conclusiones.

El valor de la recompensa determina a la suerte

Uno podría creer que la suerte es lo que es y ya está. Simplemente es que te pasen cosas buenas, pero la realidad es que todo es cuestión de probabilidad y estadística. Nuestro mundo está inundado de esto, al final todo se resume a la ciencia de las matemáticas. ¿Qué tiene la suerte de especial y por qué la inventamos si sólo es una cuestión de probabilidad?

Imagínate un volado. Estás con alguien y de repente te dice “vamos a echarnos un volado, si sale águila ganas tú, y si sale sol gano yo”. La probabilidad es 50% de ganar o perder. Se hace el volado y ganas… muy bien, ganaste ¿y ahora? Pues nada, qué cool que ganaste pero al final no hay valor en ganarlo. Sin embargo, si ganar o perder ese volado representara algo más, como ganar $1,000,000 de pesos, y ganas. Eso sí que sería suerte.

El punto aquí es que la suerte es el valor de la recompensa, no la acción que la detona. Al final, todo se resume a lo mismo, probabilidad y estadística. Porque ese 50% de ganar o perder siempre está ahí, no hay nada “místico” que pueda manipular el resultado de ese volado.

Manipulando la suerte y aumentando probabilidades

Para mejorar nuestra suerte solamente necesitamos mejorar nuestras probabilidades. Así de simple. Pero antes de entrar en profundidad, quisiera que te preguntaras lo siguiente: ¿Te crees una persona con buena suerte?

Piénsalo bien. Esta pregunta no es para responder “pues gracias a Dios tengo salud, un techo, comida y una familia increíble”, porque no va por ahí. Me refiero a los eventos de tu vida en los que el éxito o el fracaso fueron determinados. No se trata de definir si gracias a alguna divinidad te va bien o mal, sino de entender si has hecho lo correcto para aumentar las probabilidades de que te salgan bien las cosas. 

La realidad es que para ganar ese volado del millón de pesos primero tienes que tirar el volado. Todo mundo sabe que la suerte consta de estar en el momento y en el lugar adecuado. El momento adecuado es un tema meramente de suerte probabilidad pero estar en el lugar adecuado depende de ti.

AUMENTA TUS VOLADOS

Constantemente solemos creer que la suerte es cuestión de un gran evento y listo. Estamos convencidos de que los millonarios de este mundo llegaron a ser millonarios porque heredaron su fortuna, eran amigos de Bill Gates, o lo que tú quieras. Pero esas creencias no son tan difíciles de desenmascarar, el que tuvo suerte es gente que lo tiene todo y de repente no tiene nada. Y el que formó su suerte, es el que por proceso mejoró sus probabilidades de éxito al tirar más volados.

Estoy seguro de que conoces historias de famosos que ganan millones y están en la cima de la fama, pero de repente todo su legado se desvanece. Nadie sabe qué fue de ellos y de la nada aparecen en un blog de chismes diciendo “Este super cantante ahora es taxista para sobrevivir”. ¿Te ha pasado? Bueno, esas personas tuvieron un shot de suerte y se acabó. Porque probablemente tiraron un volado y ganaron, pero no continuaron echando volados.

La vida se trata de echar volados y aumentar las probabilidades de ganar, algunos ganan en el intento 10, otros en el 98, pero los que no tiran volados nunca ganan. Si eres de las personas que se la pasa viendo Netflix y se queja de no tener suerte, creo que no estás tirando los volados suficientes.

DIVERSIFICA TU VIDA

El concepto que más me gustó del libro fue este: diversificar nuestras vidas. Por lo general escuchamos mucho la frase de “diversificar tus inversiones”, y creemos que el tema de diversificar sólo tiene que ver con cuestiones de dinero.

No pongas todos los huevos en una misma canasta, dicen. No inviertas tu dinero solamente en un negocio, en un fondo de inversión, en una acción en la bolsa o lo que sea. Lo que nunca pensamos es que nuestras vidas también son una inversión, nuestras amistades, actividades y costumbres también lo son.

Estar cerrado solamente a nuestro mundo disminuye nuestras probabilidades de tener éxito (o suerte, ya me da igual como lo quieran llamar). A veces ponemos todos los huevos en una canasta y no nos damos cuenta. No hacemos amigos nuevos, no hacemos actividades diferentes, no intentamos cosas fuera de nuestro círculo, etc.  Conocer realidades un poco externas a las nuestras puede atraernos suerte. Simplemente porque aumentan los lugares y las personas con las que podemos tirar volados.

Si existe un buen consejo para aumentar nuestra suerte yo creo que sería:

Aumenta la cantidad de tus volados, así como los lugares y las personas con las que tirar.

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  1. […] Hay dos vías para hacerse millonarios. MJ lo define como los que van en el carril de baja velocidad (slowlaners) y los que van en el de alta (fastlaners). Y por otro lado están los de la banqueta (sidewalkers) que prácticamente ni siquiera participan porque dejan toda su vida a la suerte. […]

  2. […] la vida depende de qué tanta suerte tengas al nacer. Ya hemos hablado previamente de la suerte en otro artículo, pero hoy no hablaremos de la suerte. Hablaremos de dónde sacamos la motivación cuando lo tenemos […]

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